In a way, Saturday was business as usual. I met up with one of my fly-fishing buddies, and we hit a river in western Massachusetts. But, we also made sure to keep at least six feet away from each other. And, we talked about COVID-19, and our concerns for our parents.
In a way, it was not business as usual. I learned that a close friend’s father has died from the virus.
Over the past few weeks, I’ve called a college roommate and the best man at my wedding. I’m organizing Zoom calls for my HBS Section, and feel the motivation to help organize a virtual “open mic” night for our class. It’s a good time to stay in touch and be in touch.
Other parts of the world seem to be re-emerging. A friend in Hong Kong says life there is returning to normal, but that everyone has fatigue, as they’ve been battling the virus since January.
Here in the USA, we are just at the beginning. Our government was late to act, and we now are starting to see the numbers and casualties really climb. It is amazing to me that some Red states are still in denial.
But, I was the same until just a few weeks ago, which today feels like an eternity ago.
My deepest hopes that you and yours are safe and healthy….
Caught only one today. But, this was a welcome sight. #flyfishing pic.twitter.com/rqI9f7cnrA
— Jo Tango (@jtangoVC) March 28, 2020
Trying to provide guidance to my ventures:
Most people like to see a black and white world. I take a probabilistic view.
I see a 40% chance that financial markets will freeze and thus our customers will conserve cash and pay NO bills for 3-6 months.
I see a 60% chance that in 60 days financial markets will start to loosen and that we will have clarity on the course and severity of the virus impact. But the freeze won’t be over.
We are going to operate under the 40% forecast. That means that TODAY, we need to behave 30 or 60 days ahead of the consensus around us. That is hard. It is counter intuitive to put on your coat an hour before it rains.
Remember our financial behavior when we started. Encore.
It’s very hard to know what will happen. I don’t expect normalcy for 18 to 24 months regarding GDP. In the interim, we will have roving hot spots and shut downs in the country and, until then, other countries will prohibit American citizens from coming in. And, that will limit trade, GDP and employment.