First Debate

Sep 27

In: Podcasts, Politics

I didn’t watch last night’s first Presidential debate. Instead, I this morning read some online summaries and watched the video highlights.

And, I listened to the FiveThirtyEight.com podcast and read a really good article on post-debate “insta-polls” and how they correlate with more robust polling a few days later (article here). You may remember Nate Silver, who four years ago ran the polling work for the New York Times. He then left to start a new company, which ESPN funded.

He thinks HRC should rise up in the polls as a result of the first debate.

I like the podcast series because it is data-driven as much as possible. Rather than listen to talking heads “spin” the post-debate tenor, I like listening to analysts break down data on voter profiles, turnout, and hot button issues.

The site also runs a probability model to guess each state’s electoral vote outcome and forecasts a win probability for each candidate.  As of today, their “polls plus” model predicts 55% for HRC and 45% for DJT.

More below.

polls

‘Mirrors’

Sep 24

In: Family life, Personal, Philosophy, Politics

I’m a parent. I’m not a perfect one, but I do try and remember to take it seriously. I know that you likely are becoming numb to this election cycle.

But, I think the video below is very important, not because of a political message, but because of a parenting message.

Persistence

Sep 18

In: Entrepreneurship, Fly fishing, Personal, Technology and VC

After a two-hour drive and six hours of hard fishing on Saturday, I had landed only one very small fish. I felt pretty dejected. But, I’ve learned in the past that if I keep going, good things usually happen.

It certainly did again.

At the bottom of this post are pictures of a 22″ brown trout. It is a new personal best for me. It was a very slow day, with only three fish landed. But, what a way to end the day.

Eric and I lately have been speaking often about persistence. We find that trait is important for entrepreneurs. I think it also is important for VCs, for the feedback loop is very, very long.

Persistence is also important in marriages and parenting. And, if you’re trying to create social change, that takes much time, too.

For me, the best way to persist is to be agnostic to outcomes and just try to live in the moment in a fulfilling and virtuous way. And, to think that persisting is actually a luxury: I can choose to persist.

Persistence works for me. And, it made for a very joyful two-hour drive back home.





brown

Char

Sep 10

In: Art, Fly fishing, Personal

I assiduously follow Amelia and Dave Jensen on social media. They are living a cool life.

In Alberta, Canada, they run a fishing lodge and a guide service. Then, during the N. American winter, they head to New Zealand to camp and fish during that hemisphere’s summer. And, they post some amazing videos, like the one below.

Amelia also paints. She recently put up a new watercolor, called “Char Color.” I decided to buy it and just received it. Opening the multiple layers of boxes, packing tape and bubble wrap took a great deal of time.

But, like a Christmas morning gift, it was all worth it.

I have a recurring daydream. One day, when I am an old man, I will take some time off and travel to fish. It might be my last trip.

I’ll be on the water at dawn and leave at dusk. In the evenings, I will return to a small cabin, tired and fulfilled. I will cook and quietly eat dinner. I will tie flies. Before falling asleep, I will think gratefully about my day and the many blessings I’ve had in my life. I will envision the faces of all of my loved ones and friends.

I had thought all that would happen in Montana. Perhaps, it also will be in Alberta and New Zealand, too.

Thank you, Amelia! I will be hanging up your painting (I still consider it yours) next to my fly tying desk. During those quiet and snowy winter evenings, I will be making flies and wishing you and Dave all the best with your adventures.

Fried Rice

Sep 5

In: Family life, Food, Personal

I’m the household manager this week. Mrs. T. is out of town.

It will be a quiet dinner tonight. Our oldest just went to college. Our other teens are out with a friend. So, it’s just our youngest child and I at home for dinner.

Frankly, it is weird to have the house so quiet. But, it’s actually not so bad, as I’m doing a ton of household chores and thinking about what fly-fishing flies to make.

And, I’ll be cooking dinner. I’m going to try to use up some leftovers, and I think I’ll make some fried rice. There isn’t an exact recipe, but a general outline is below. But, I do think browning some ham and adding white pepper are important.

A peaceful Labor Day to all.

INGREDIENTS
Shallots or onions, minced
Scallions, chopped
Garlic, 1 clove minced
Ham, diced
Cooked rice, 2 to 3 C.
Soy sauce, 4 T.
Brown sugar, 1 T.
Salt to taste
White pepper and black pepper to taste

RECIPE
Sauté the shallots or onions, scallions and garlic for a minute. Add the ham and cook until the ham is slightly brown.

Add the rice and sauté. Once all that is combined, add the rest of the ingredients.

Here’s the tricky part. You want to keep cooking until everything is warm and the rice sizzles a bit. There’s nothing worse than “flabby” fried rice.

Also, you want the rice to be brown. Add more soy sauce if you need to. And, taste as you go along and add more soy sauce, salt and pepper for flavor.